The New Playoff

New Wild Card System, Not as Bad as it Seems.

Lately a lot of negative feelings and discussion have occurred concerning Baseball's new playoff system. Some players like Chipper Jones have recently come out against it claiming that it is"stupid", while fans have contended that the new system will water down MLB's product by allowing sub-par teams to make the playoffs. Of course others contend that it is simply a money grabbing venture by Bud Selig and in this vein the most cynical think that it is just a ploy to guarantee that the Yankees, Red Sox, and Phillies make the playoffs every year. This negativity, though, has drowned out the real story here and the importance of the rule change. This decision was made with a lot of care and consideration. Even though I am a Braves fan and know that my team will be experiencing the one game "playoff" that could erase our great season in one bad game, let me explain why the new system is great and how it improves the game.

Lets start with addressing Chipper Jones' comments, which seem to voice the majority of the concern about the new system. Chipper thinks that the wild card game is just for the fans and that “You say to yourself, we could possibly have the second- or third-best record in the National League when the season’s over and we have to play a one-game playoff just to get in.” Here is the embodiment of the concern: that possibly a team with the second best record in baseball could be knocked out in a one game playoff , giving way to a less deserving team. To see if this concern is really valid we should look at how this rule would have played out if it had been since the "wild-card's " inception in 1995.

Below we have a table representing the wild card. The third and fifth columns represent which team would have made it into the one game playoff if the rule had been in existence. In other words it represents the "extra" team that would have had a chance at the title.

Key:

N or A= a year where the second wild card had a better record than at least one divisional leader in their league.

n or a= a year when the second wild card would have been tied with at least one divisional leader

W= year the wild card team won the world series

.

Year	NL Wild Card	2nd NL Wild Card	AL Wild Card	2nd AL Wild card
1995	COL 77-67	HOU 76-68	NYY- 79-65	LAA- 78-67
1996-n	LAD 90-72	MON 88-74	BAL 88-74	SEA 85-76
1997-W, N	FLA 92- 70	LAD, NYM 88-74	NYY 96-66	LAA 84-78
1998-a	CHI 90-73	SAF- 89-74	BOS 92-70	TOR 88-74
1999	NYM 97-66	CIN 96-67	BOS 94-68	OAK 87-75
2000- A	NYM 94-68	LAD 86-76	SEA 91-71	CLE 90-72
2001- N	STL 93-69	SAF 90-72	OAK 102-60	MIN 85-77
2002-W	SAF 95-66	LAD 92-70	LAA 99-63	BOS, SEA 93-69
2003-W, A,	FLA 91 71	HOU 87-75	BOS 95-67	SEA 93-69
2004-W	HOU 92-70	SAF 91-71	BOS 98-64	OAK 91-71
2005-N	HOU 89-73	PHI 88-74	BOS 95-67	CLE 93-69
2006-N	LAD 88-74	PHI 85-77	DET 95-67	CHW 90-72
2007-N	COL 90-73	SAD 89-74	NYY 94-68	DET, SEA 88-74
2008-N,a	MIL 90-72	NYM 89-73	BOS 95-67	NYY 89-73
2009- A	COL 92-70	SAF 88-74	BOS 95-67	TEX 87-75
2010	ATL 91-71	SAD 90-72	NYY 95-67	BOS 89-73
2011-W,	STL 90-72	ATL 89-73	TAB 91-71	BOX 90-72

So, since the wild card has been in existence the "second" wild card team has had a better record or been tied with a division leader 11 out of the 17 seasons. In the national league the average record a second wild card team would need to have is 89-73 to make the playoffs. In the American League the second wild card team would need to have a record of 88.875- 73.123 to make the playoffs.

I think the numbers speak to two things, the first being that by adding a second wild card team we are in no way adding a scrub team or an untalented team. Beyond this though 11 out of the 17 seasons the second wild card team was at least tied with at least one division leader. If anything I think this shows us a fault with the divisional system more than the 2nd wild card, in how it relates to getting the most talented team on the field. I am not opposed to opening up the discussion about doing away with the divisional system, reworking it, or trying to find a better way to make sure that the best teams make the playoffs. However, we have to remember that this problem about a good team missing the playoffs is nothing new and can not be blamed on the additional wild-card team.

Now that we have shown that the"second wild-card" teams are more than qualified to play in the playoffs what do we address next? Maybe the claim that this is just a way to get teams like Boston, New York, and Philadelphia in the playoffs more? Wrong. In the national league teams from the central or west division would have fared best under this system, making it 12 out of the 17 seasons. In the American League it would have only placed the Yankees or Red Sox in the playoffs 4 out of 17 seasons. All in all this system would have helped teams in the NL and Al west the most, teams like the Padres Seattle, San Fran, and Las Angles.

I am hoping that the chart above dispels peoples ideas that the Wild card team is unqualified and really do hope that people are not being cynical about this just being a way for MLB to make money, because in the end this new system was not hap-haphazardly created and makes winning one's division important again.

Before the wild card's creation in 1994 (not realized until 96 due to the strike) only two teams from each league made the playoffs. The creation of the wild card as we all know was done to make it so there would be an even number of teams in the playoffs when they added the NL/ALDS. Now MLB could have given the division leader with the best record a bye in the NL/ALDS, instead making the other two division leaders play to get to the NL/ALCS. Of course we have all seen rest - too much rest- completely de- rail even the best teams in major league baseball, so instead baseball opted to add the wild-card team and gave every team a 12.5% chance of winning it all.

The problem with the wildcard before this year is simply that there was no incentive to play for your division since it's inception. If you won your division or squeaked in as the wild card you had the exact same chances of winning it all. Because as we have heard a thousand times: "Anything can happen once you are in the playoffs." For this reason no one had real incentive to win their division instead of the wild-card, which at the end of 162 games there should be a reward for winning your division.

Winning the division means something again and as I pointed out earlier that we may need to revise the system, under our current system we had to give reason to the season and more importantly being the best in your division. Under the new system the wild card teams have to not only play one extra game (throwing off their pitching rotations), but they also have to deal with the fact that if they had won their division they would not be in this situation.

Sometimes we may face a situation where one of both of the wild card teams have better records than the other divisional leaders, but we need to remember that this is not the fault of the new system and is instead the fault of the divisional system as whole.

Under our current system this is the best system, because one game not only puts the wild card teams under extra pressure, but it also does not give the divisional winners too much rest. When Bud Selig introduced this idea and created the committee to review and develop the new system they all agreed that it should only be a single game and not a best 2-3 that has been proposed by many columnists and some players. This committee was not a rag tag group of guys and included some of the most respected owners, managers, and former managers, many of which hold credentials in Cooperstown. One game means the wild card team will have more travel, gives the divisional leaders a little rest while not getting them cold, and also makes the wild-card teams have to play extra to make it. The new system puts the wild card team at a disadvantage, a disadvantage the wild card should be.

The Braves have said that they are still shooting for the Nats and the division, something that never would have happened if the second wild card was not in place. These sorts of comments and fire show the true genius of how it fixes the current playoff system. Winning your division, playing all 162 games to your fullest means something again. Teams are not resting their players this last week, trying to prepare for the playoff's, but instead are playing it out to the bitter end trying to avoid the play in game. I love my Braves and baseball and while I do not agree with him often (couch all-star game cough) I think Bud did a great thing with the new system. 162 games mean something now, the division means something. By using this system it is less likely that a "hot" wild card team will be able to sneak into the playoffs. The "Wild Card" is supposed to be a second bite of the apple when it comes to the post season and now it truly is.